AAI Scenarios
All scenarios

Beslutsfattande

The bill arrived before the results

Your AI spend is now roughly a quarter of your profit. The effect on the bottom line can't be evidenced.

Time

40 min

Level

Intermediate

Roles

4

Framework

From cost to result

Read the full scenario

Before you begin

3 minutes of prep for the facilitator

Materials

  • ▸Projector or large screen
  • ▸A notepad for each participant
  • ▸A facilitator (can be someone in the group)
  • ▸A flip chart for the question of what would make you shut it down — it should be written down, not just said

The room

  • ▸Sit around a table. The discussion should be horizontal.
  • ▸Don't bring the actual AI budget into the room. The scenario should be discussed without anyone defending their own line item.
  • ▸Decide who notes down the group's decisions and reasoning.

Say as intro

"We don't know whether this is an investment or a loss. That's the whole point. The task isn't to guess right — it's to decide what would make us change our minds."

Briefing

The situation

It's budget season. In two years the AI spend has gone from a rounding error to a line you can see in the P&L. Next year's forecast is around a quarter of profit. The effect on results: nothing that can be evidenced. No service has been retired, no price raised, no staffing changed. Here is what you don't know: whether the price will rise again — or by how much, who ordered half of the usage, whether the time savings employees report are real, what competitors actually get out of it behind the press releases, and whether the effect arrives in a year or never.

Discussion

Questions to wrestle with

What did we actually buy?

  1. 1.Who owns the AI cost today — really, not on paper?
  2. 2.If everyone saves time and results stay flat: where did the hours go?
  3. 3.Is that a problem, or a benefit we've chosen to give away without saying so out loud?

What would make us change our mind?

  1. 1.What would make us shut this down? Write a number and a date now, in the room.
  2. 2.How much of our continued commitment is prestige — someone's reputation tied to the decision?

Framework · From cost to result

To lean on

Spend

Money leaves the company. Always measurable.

Activity

Something is done faster or more often. Usually measurable.

Capacity

Time or capability is freed up. Rarely measurable, often self-reported.

Result

Capacity is converted into revenue or removed cost. Requires an active decision. It does not happen by itself.

Decision

Possible paths

  1. ASet a cap and shut down everything without a named owner.
  2. BKeep the budget for 12 months, but against hard metrics per use case.
  3. CAccept that the time savings are real and take them out — in staffing, delivery volume or price.
  4. DDefer the decision to next quarter and commission an analysis.

Triggers

Drop in when the discussion stalls

  • ▸The vendor announces a price adjustment with 30 days' notice.
  • ▸One of the most expensive workflows turns out to be an automated background job no manager wants to claim.
  • ▸A competitor reports margin improvement and attributes it to AI. Without numbers.
  • ▸Your largest client asks what you are doing with AI — and expects a good answer.

For the facilitator

Tips to get more out of it

  • The group often slides into tool and vendor choices. That's an escape from the ownership question. Pull them back.
  • Most leadership teams pick B or D, because they're the only options that don't require an uncomfortable decision in the room. Then ask what is different in twelve months.
  • Option C is in practice a staffing and culture decision dressed up as an IT decision. Say it out loud if nobody else does.
  • Push the question of what would make you shut it down. It decides whether the session was worth anything. The rest the group can talk away.

Reflection

To take with you

  • "If we stand here a year from now with the same numbers and the same uncertainty — what will we wish we had decided today?"